Last summer, American families started doing something unusual: shopping for back to school in June.
Back to School is the second-largest retail season in the United States, behind only the winter holidays. In 2025, it generated $128.2 billion in total spending across K-12 and college households.*2 That’s a season that shapes Q3 for retailers, service businesses, and B2B companies alike. In 2025, the families driving it moved earlier than anyone expected. In 2026, there is every reason to believe they’ll move earlier still.
Most businesses’ marketing calendars didn’t. And that window — the gap between when the customer moves and when the marketing goes live — is what this is about.
The season started early. The campaigns didn’t.
By early June 2025, 26% of back-to-school shoppers had already started buying — up from 17% in 2019.*3 By early July, two-thirds had begun purchasing.*4 That was the highest early-shopping rate the NRF had recorded since they started tracking the data in 2018.
Half of all back-to-school families said they were shopping earlier specifically because they were worried prices would rise due to tariffs — and in 2026, those concerns haven’t gone away.*5 They weren’t waiting for a sale. They weren’t responding to a promotional email. They made a financial calculation and acted on it before the season officially existed.
The businesses that were already visible in search, already running campaigns, already in the consideration phase — they captured that demand at lower cost and higher intent. The businesses that activated in August competed for what was left.
This dynamic isn’t specific to 2025. What changes year to year is the trigger — last year it was tariffs, the year before it was supply chain anxiety. The pattern stays the same: the customer moves before the calendar does, and the businesses with their marketing already live are the ones that benefit.
Amazon moved $24 billion in four days.
In mid-July 2025, Amazon ran its summer Prime Day event over four days. U.S. consumers spent more than $24 billion online during that window.*6 Walmart, Target, and other major retailers launched competing promotions — Walmart Deals, Target Circle Week — specifically to capture the same back-to-school demand.
The result was a concentrated burst of intent that moved the entire season earlier. On Shopify, sales of school uniforms jumped 231% from June to July, backpacks rose 180%, and lunch boxes increased 174%.*7
Businesses that had campaigns live before that window captured demand at lower CPCs and higher intent. Businesses that activated during it competed against every major retailer simultaneously. Businesses that activated after it caught the tail — smaller volume, higher cost, diminishing returns.
The businesses that grew in Q3 had three things in common.
01
They read the economic signals before the season starts.
In 2025, tariff anxiety was visible in consumer sentiment data as early as March and April. The NRF was tracking early-shopping intent in June. Businesses that were paying attention to macro signals — not just their own sales calendar — knew something was shifting before the shelves moved. Every major seasonal shift leaves a trail. The trail for 2026 is already there: 91% of back-to-school shoppers in 2025 expected prices to be higher due to tariffs.*8 That intelligence is the lead indicator for activation timing.
02
They treat the research phase as the conversion opportunity.
By the time a family is standing in a store making a purchase decision, the marketing has already done its job — or failed to. The consideration phase for back-to-school starts weeks before the buying phase. It’s when parents are comparing prices, reading reviews, deciding which brands deserve their budget. Being present in that phase — in search results, in social feeds, in remarketing — is what determines whether you’re an option when the decision gets made. Most businesses only show up in the buying phase. By then, someone else has already won the consideration.
03
They don’t confuse the season with the category.
Back to School moves through far more than school supplies and electronics. It reshapes spending on clothing, food, transportation, healthcare appointments, home organization, and services of every kind. Businesses in sectors that seem disconnected from “school” often have more exposure to Back to School demand than they realize. The right question is: who, in my customer base, is making a decision right now because of the school year — and how do I show up for them before they decide?
Back to School 2026 follows the same pattern — and it’s already in motion. The signals are here: tariff uncertainty, early consumer anxiety, Prime Day coming in July. The businesses activating now will own the consideration phase before most of their competitors have written a brief.
May is the activation window. The only question is whether your business is ready for it.
Back to School 2026 starts in a few weeks.
What does your marketing look like today?
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*1 National Retail Federation (NRF) and Retail Dive. Back to School is formally designated the #2 retail season in the U.S. behind the winter holiday season (November-December).
*2 NRF / Talk Business & Politics, August 14, 2025. Total projected spending for Back to School 2025: $128.2 billion, combining K-12 ($39.4B) and college ($88.8B) households.
*3 NRF / SGB Media, July 23, 2025. 26% of K-12 and college shoppers had started purchasing by early June 2025, up from 22% in 2024 and 17% in 2019.
*4 NRF press release, July 15, 2025. Two-thirds (67%) of back-to-school shoppers had already begun purchasing as of early July 2025. Up from 55% in 2024. Highest rate since NRF began tracking in 2018.
*5 NRF, July 2025. 51% of back-to-school families reported shopping earlier specifically out of concern that prices would rise due to tariffs.
*6 Adobe Analytics, July 2025. U.S. consumers spent more than $24 billion online during Amazon’s four-day Prime Day 2025 event.
*7 Shopify internal sales data, 2025. June-to-July increases: school uniforms +231%, backpacks +180%, lunch boxes +174%.
*8 NRF, August 2025. 91% of back-to-school shoppers expected prices on the items they needed to be higher due to tariffs.